E172: SBF gets 25 years, Trump's meme stock, RFK Jr picks VP, Biden's 2025 budget & more

Bestie Intros: Late night poker snacks! (00:00:00)

• Nat and Jason have a tradition of playing poker and eating snacks late at night.
• Phil Hut has a habit of ordering food from DoorDash and forgetting to change the delivery address, resulting in unexpected food deliveries at Jason's house.
• Chamath sometimes mistakenly orders food to Jason's house when using the group jet.
• Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has been sentenced to 25 years in prison.
• Donald Trump's meme stock, DWAC, has seen a surge in popularity.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has chosen RFK Jr. as his vice presidential running mate.
• President Biden's proposed 2025 budget includes increased funding for various programs.

SBF sentenced to 25 years (00:02:33)

• Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder of FTX, was sentenced to 25 years in prison without the possibility of parole for defrauding investors and customers.
• FTX customers lost $8 billion, investors lost $1.7 billion, and lenders lost $1.3 billion.
• SBF made risky investments with customer deposits, including seed investments in Anthropic and Solana.
• SBF's co-founders allowed him to engage in risky behavior that led to FTX's collapse.
• The FTX trustee believes that even if SBF could repay customers, he is still guilty of stealing their money.
• SBF and his associates allegedly used speed, contributing to their manic behavior and sense of entitlement.
• Former President Donald Trump's meme stock, DWAC, surged in value after he announced his intention to run for president in 2024.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. selected environmental activist Shiva Ayyadurai as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
• President Biden's proposed budget for 2025 includes significant increases in spending on social programs and infrastructure.

Trump's meme stock: modern trading card, protest vote, or something else? (00:16:41)

• Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) received a 25-year prison sentence for his involvement in the cryptocurrency exchange's collapse.
• Donald Trump's social media platform, Truth Social, merged with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), and went public.
• Despite its rapid growth, Truth Social has not disclosed user metrics, leading to questions about its valuation, which stands at around $8.5 billion.
• The merger between DWAC and Truth Social faced delays due to an SEC investigation into insider trading but was eventually approved.
• Trump launched a trading card based on the value of his brand, name, recognition, and likeness, attracting buyers who see it as a directional bet on Trump's brand and a protest against traditional media and censorship.
• Trump's supporters are purchasing the stock to show their support and protest the legal actions he faces, viewing it as a populist reaction to his legal battles.
• The stock market is shifting towards speculative day-to-day activity, influenced by factors like meme stocks and gamified trading platforms.
• Zero-day options, allowing for highly speculative short-term trading, have gained popularity and can cause rapid stock price movements.
• The trend of individuals monetizing their name and likeness through the stock market contributes to the gamification of investing.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. selected RFK Jr. as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
• President Biden's proposed 2025 budget includes substantial increases in spending on social programs and infrastructure.

RFK Jr. selects Nicole Shanahan as VP (00:34:59)

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) has chosen Nicole Shanahan, a Bay Area lawyer, as his running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
• Shanahan's expertise lies in big tech, AI, and the health effects of toxins.
• RFK Jr. believes Shanahan's focus on chronic diseases, criminal justice reform, and climate-related issues will appeal to younger generations and liberals.
• RFK Jr. is known for addressing controversial topics and introducing unconventional ideas into the mainstream.
• The selection of Shanahan aims to solidify support from the left flank of RFK Jr.'s coalition.
• RFK Jr. is running as an independent candidate, and his choice of Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick as his vice presidential running mate is a strategic move to attract voters from both the left and the right.
• Some believe RFK Jr.'s candidacy could harm Biden's chances of winning the election by drawing votes away from the Democratic candidate.
• The federal debt and deficit are the most pressing issues facing the country, yet no candidate is addressing them.
• Balancing the budget and cutting spending are necessary but unpopular policies, making it challenging for any candidate to win on that platform.
• The looming problems of raising tax rates, cutting entitlement programs, and dealing with inflation caused by the federal debt level will eventually have severe consequences.
• Rampant misuse of funds, lack of accountability in spending, and negative ROI spending contribute to the country's economic dependence on federal spending.

Biden's budget plan for 2025: how to confront America's existential crisis? (00:47:46)

• President Biden's proposed budget for 2025 is $7.3 trillion, with a projected deficit of $1.78 trillion. The national debt stands at $34.5 trillion, and interest payments are expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2026.
• Entitlements, interest payments, and non-defense spending have grown significantly, while defense spending has remained modest. Potential savings can be found in Medicare reimbursements and shifting from traditional warfare to unmanned vehicles and cyber warfare.
• Increasing taxation beyond 20% of GDP can lead to negative economic growth due to reduced investment and economic shrinkage. The government's revenue percentages have been highest during good economic years with reasonable taxation levels.
• Federal spending as a percentage of GDP has increased significantly, from 18.8% to 25-30% during COVID, and remains high. Freezing spending is proposed as a starting point for addressing the budget deficit.
• The federal government directly employs 3 million Americans and supports an estimated 45-50 million people through businesses and labor. Over 100-120 million people in the US are directly or indirectly dependent on federal spending.
• The US economy is heavily dependent on federal spending, which supports many employed individuals and companies. However, this dependency creates special interests that lobby for more spending and can lead to inflation without generating real economic growth.
• The US debt-to-GDP ratio is still relatively reasonable compared to other countries, and there is room for more deficits. The US is also forecasted to grow at reasonable rates above its replacement population, which could positively impact GDP growth.
• Freezing federal spending until net outlays as a percentage of GDP reach 20% could address the issue, but it would be challenging due to rising interest expenses and entitlement expenses.

Science Corner: Why the price of cocoa has skyrocketed! (01:11:59)

• Cocoa prices have surged from $2,000 to $10,000 per ton.
• 73% of the world's cocoa is grown in West Africa, primarily in Ghana and Ivory Coast.
• An El Nino weather event caused heavy rainfall in West Africa, spreading a fungus called black pod disease which reduced cocoa production by 50%.
• Buyers rushed to purchase cocoa, leading to a short squeeze and a parabolic jump in price.
• Chocolate companies may reduce the size of their chocolate bars, raise prices, or use alternative ingredients due to the increased cocoa cost.
• Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the founder of FTX, has been sentenced to 25 years in prison for defrauding investors.
• Donald Trump's Truth Social has been classified as a meme stock due to its high volatility and retail investor interest.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has chosen environmental activist Shiva Ayyadurai as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
• President Biden's proposed 2025 budget includes increased funding for renewable energy, healthcare, and education, while reducing the deficit.

Movie talk and wrap! (01:16:41)

• The YouTube video discusses the movie Dune (2021), with hosts giving ratings ranging from 6.5 to 8.5 out of 10.
• Timothée Chalamet's portrayal of Paul Atreides is discussed, with some hosts finding him too skinny for the role.
• The original Dune movie (1984) is compared to the 2021 version, and hopes are expressed for the upcoming Dune: Part Two.
• Sam Bankman-Fried, former CEO of FTX, has been sentenced to 25 years in prison for his role in the cryptocurrency exchange's collapse.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has chosen environmental activist Shiva Ayyadurai as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
• President Biden's proposed 2025 budget includes substantial increases in spending on social programs and infrastructure while reducing the federal deficit.
• The Allin podcast is nearing 1 million subscribers on YouTube and will celebrate with a subscriber party.
• A live Q&A session will be held on the channel once it reaches 600,000 subscribers.
• The podcast team is considering open-sourcing the podcast to fans.